March 14 update
Dear All,
Thanks for the positive receptivity to my initial post 2 days ago. Based on the positive feedback and ever-changing information regarding COVID, I've decided to send out updates every 24-48 hrs as things develop.
Please sign up here if you'd like to be on the list for subsequent updates. From here on, I will be using the list serv to push out updates. Until then, feel free to forward this email to whomever may be interested
What has changed since the last email in 48 hrs?
A lot! In fact, if you were to re-read my initial email from Thursday morning only ~48 hrs ago (linked here) you’ll note that since then, NCAA March Madness, The Masters, and every major sports league suspended operations. Even that probably feels like old news. Many states are starting to report their first confirmed cases and public schools are beginning to close. All in 48 hours. I anticipate the pace of the change to remain this rapid going forward and plan to send updates every 1-2 days given the rapidly evolving situation.
What has gone right in the past 48 hrs?
A lot! Canceling all sporting events, mass gatherings, public schools are all appropriate actions and help all of us understand the significance of the unfolding situation. It seems terms such as ‘flatten the curve’ and ‘social distancing’ are becoming common verbiage. This is encouraging.
What more needs to be done in the next 48 hrs?
A lot! While I’m encouraged by the past 48 hrs, there is much more we can do. At the risk of being a broken record, the MOST important thing we can do over the next 48 hrs is to take social distancing as seriously as possible.
What does it mean to socially distance?
Here is a great article that describes what this means.
Why is this so important?
We are at ‘community spread’ conditions; meaning it’s everywhere. If there are no confirmed cases in your community it is not because COVID is not there, it’s because we are testing only a small number of people per day and testing only the sickest of the sick people. Containment is no longer a strategy. Given this, the ONLY current option to decrease the speed of spreading is to socially distance. The speed at which this spreads will dictate whether or not we run out of bed capacity. Thus, slowing the speed of spread over the next few weeks is of critical importance to reduce risk we outstrip hospital capacity. This is the near-term goal over the next few weeks/months. If we over-strip capacity, we will be forced to pick and choose who gets ventilators similar to what is going on currently in Northern Italy. We should do everything possible to avoid this scenario.
I just found out someone in my community who lives nearby and/or works in my office just tested positive. What should I do?
First and foremost, stay calm. This is to be expected. Today, it is still ‘newsworthy’ that someone in your community tested positive. The number of people testing positive in your community will continue to increase over the coming weeks. It is likely all of us will know someone directly who has tested positive over the next week.
If and when someone in your community or neighborhood tests positive, not much should change as compared to what you should already be doing. You should already be trying to avoid large gatherings and close contact with others. But, you should feel totally comfortable leaving the house to run errands, go to the grocery. We all still have to live life, but when you are out, stay 3 feet away from others, don’t touch your face, use hand sanitizer when you enter and leave the facility you visit, and wash hands thoroughly when you get home.
What if it’s me who tests positive or spikes a fever?
Stay calm. It is a normal reaction to be nervous/anxious/scared but remind yourself that millions of people will get this and the vast majority will be just fine. Reassure yourself that there are no immediate actions you need to take that will change the course of the disease and that the best thing you can do is self-quarantine to limit the risk you spread it to others. If you have mild symptoms such as low-grade fever, muscle aches, cough DO NOT go to the Emergency room or your doctor’s office. That will only potentially spread the virus to others. Rather, use telehealth (most insurance plans are offering for free through their websites) and use a drive-thru facility to get tested once those are set up in your area. This will reduce how many people you may infect.
If you develop high-fever, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing, go to the emergency room.
Drive-thru testing just became available in my area. Should I go get tested today?
No, not if you aren’t having symptoms. The test is not perfect and may even give you a false negative result (meaning you do in fact have COVID, but the test is negative) if you’re still very early in the course and haven’t developed symptoms.
Rather, you should utilize drive-thru testing only if you have symptoms.
Schools across the country including Alabama have now been shut down for 2-3 weeks. Is this an over-reaction:
No. In fact, canceling today is the smartest move as compared to delaying any further.
Why is this?
Beyond the ‘flatten the curve’ benefits noted in our first blog, closing schools across the country was inevitable. It was a never a question of “If schools will be canceled?” it was always “When will schools be shut down?” Fortunately, the virus does not appear to cause severe symptoms in kids and infants but kids can carry the virus despite not showing symptoms. Therefore, congregating large groups of kids who will inevitably touch each other, sneeze on each other, and then go home to their respective homes is a recipe for mass spread.
I am acutely aware of the disruption to commerce, the markets, the economy, and of course the real-world impact of asking adults to watch their kids and potentially skipping work and missing paychecks especially given how many folks rely on week-to-week paychecks to get by. But the quicker we settle up and "Pay the bill," the better off we'll be.
What does this mean?
Paying the bill means being ready to deal with the enormous economic impacts COVID is having and will have on the economy. Taking steps such as closing schools, working from home, canceling events yields major economic impacts that will force us to ‘pay the bill,’ or put another way, accept big economic losses from taking these actions.
But, I can assure you, taking these actions was never a question of “Will we have to cancel events, cancel schools, close office buildings, and suffer the economic hardships associated with these actions?” but rather, “When will we forced to take those actions and pay the bill?”
Paying the bill today, as opposed to waiting even another week (much less than 2 or 3 weeks) is the best thing we can do to get past COVID and return to normalcy as soon as possible. It was never going to be easy and would be even more damaging to the markets and economies the longer we wait.
The actions we’re seeing of shutting down schools and canceling events was inevitable, the sooner we do it, the faster the markets and economy can recover. Kicking the can down the road and hoping everything will simply blow over would be the least practical approach if the ultimate goal is to see the economy, the markets, and society return to normal.
How come things never got that bad in China or Taiwan? Shouldn’t we expect the same results they’ve seen in China and Taiwan where things seem to already be returning to normal?
Click here to read about Taiwan’s response to COVID.
Click here to read about China’s response
I am not suggesting I approve of these measures or support them, rather, to point out that comparing the US’s disease trajectory over the next several months to how the disease progressed in countries such as Taiwan and China is ill-advised. Our response mirrors Italy’s approach far more than either China’s or Taiwan’s.
Will this whole thing ever end?
Yes. It will. Life will eventually return to ‘normal’ but unfortunately that is still some months away. It will be an unprecedented few months, but rest assured, this too shall pass. The more we all ‘pay the bill’ today by making sacrifices such as canceling events, keeping our distance, and self-quarantining, the faster we will return to normal. Delaying hard choices like this will only prolong getting back to ‘normal.’
Lastly, a personal note:
I, myself, last evening developed a headache and decided to check my temperature just in case which came back at 100.5. Of course, like anyone, I’d have preferred it was normal and not elevated at all. Other than the headache, I felt and continue to feel great and have minimal additional symptoms.
I have yet to be tested because my symptoms are mild and I plan to self-quarantine for the next few days regardless and act as if I am positive. I will go get tested if my symptoms persist and as drive-thru testing becomes more available as I’d prefer the limited tests currently available be used on folks with more severe symptoms.
While I don’t know if I have COVID or not, this personal story should reassure you of a couple things:
1) Many of us, even those who take significant precautions, may acquire COVID and that’s ok.
2) If you do test positive or develop symptoms, stay calm, and remember it’s ok.
All that is asked is that you self-quarantine and limit your exposure to others if symptomatic and/or tested positive.
I'll also be updating my own personal situation including my eventual test result in future posts. Sign up here if you'd like to be on the list for subsequent updates.
Be safe and feel free to email me directly at hsaag73@gmail.com if you have specific questions. These are truly unprecendented times and getting questions from you helps me identify what questions I should be addressing in future updates.